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    Afternoon Report – Thursday 15th August




    Trump officials see no Chinese concessions for tariff delays amid market rout

    (Reuters 15/08/2019) - China made no trade concessions after U.S. President Donald Trump postponed 10% tariffs on over $150 billion worth of Chinese imports, senior U.S. officials said on Wednesday, adding that talks aimed at resolving the trade fight would continue and markets should be patient.

    “This was not a quid pro quo,” U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told CNBC television in an interview, using a Latin phrase meaning a favor exchanged for a favor.

    Trump on Tuesday backed off his Sept. 1 deadline for imposing the tariffs on thousands of Chinese imports, including technology products, clothing and footwear, pushing it to Dec. 15 for certain items. U.S. and Chinese officials also announced renewed trade discussions.

    Both developments drew cautious relief from retailers and technology groups as the world’s two largest economies enter the second year of their trade dispute.

    Trump’s tariff delay coincided with recession fears in U.S. markets sending stocks to their biggest one-day loss since October. The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007 - a possible recession signal - after China’s industrial output growth hit a 17-year low in July and Germany reported a second-quarter contraction in gross domestic product output.

    “The only minor consolation comes in their timing,” Bown wrote. “By putting off the next two rounds until the import surges have already arrived to stock this year’s back-to-school and winter holiday shopping seasons, President Trump may be coming around, albeit belatedly, to the economic evidence on the costs of his trade war.”

    Looking for concessions from China in exchange for the delayed tariffs is the “totally wrong way to look at it,” Navarro said.

    “The whole premise of what we’re trying to do is pain on them, not pain on us,” Navarro said. “If we simply put the tariffs on Sept. 1 that would be more pain on us, rather than pain on them. That’s just silly.”

    U.S. curve inverts for first time in 12 years; 30-year yield tumbles

    (Reuters 15/08/2019) - The U.S. Treasury yield curve temporarily inverted on Wednesday for the first time since June 2007 in a sign of investor concern that the world’s biggest economy could be heading for recession.

    The inversion - where shorter-dated borrowing costs are higher than longer ones - saw U.S. 2-year note yields rise above the benchmark 10-year yield, which fell to 1.574%, the lowest since September 2016. The U.S. curve has inverted before every recession in the past 50 years, offering a false signal just once in that time.

    “Certainly a yield curve inversion is not indicative of an imminent recession. If anything, it’s probably 18 months out,” said Gautam Khanna, senior portfolio manager at Insight Investment in New York. Khanna believes U.S. economic numbers are still positive overall.

    “The question is: What is going to drive an imminent recession, when you look at the data? You don’t see that yet,” Khanna said.

    AUD/JPY technical analysis: 71.70/71 confluence limits immediate upside

    (FXStreet 15/08/2019) - With the confluence of 100-hour moving average (HMA) and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of July-end to early-August downpour limiting the AUD/JPY pair’s near-term upside, sellers target immediate support-line during further weakness. The quote takes the rounds to 71.40 during the early Asian session on Thursday.

    Ahead of meeting an upward sloping trend-line since August 07, at 71.06, prices may take a halt around the recent low of 71.25.

    However, a downside break of 71.06, also clearing the 71.00 round-figure, might not refrain from challenging monthly bottom surrounding 70.70.

    Meanwhile, two-day-old resistance-line at 71.86 acts as an additional upside barrier should the 71.70/71 confluence falls short of restricting the recovery.


    Below are Trading Central's Intraday preference recommendations. Short (SELL) positions and long (BUY) positions have two targets issued which may be used as take profit levels. Above or below a certain figure indicates the pivot level which may be used as a level for stop loss.

    CRUDE OIL 30 Minute – Short positions below 55.70 with targets at 54.05 & 53.55.

    This is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances. “It is the Policy of ForexCT to recommend the use of stop/loss function to reduce risk of significant losses to customers.

    PALLADIUM 30 Minute – Short term rebound towards 1463.50.

    FTSE Daily – Short positions below 7415.00 with targets at 7000.00 & 6855.00.

    GOLD Daily – Long positions above 1450.00 with targets at 1535.00 & 1565.00.

    AUDJPY Daily – The downside prevails as long as 73.78 is resistance.

    ASX 200 Daily – Short positions below 6715.00 with targets at 6445.00 & 6320.00.

    SILVER Daily – Long positions above 16.3500 with targets at 17.7000 & 18.2000.

    HANG SENG Daily – Short positions below 26300 with targets at 24550 & 23780.

    This is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances. “It is the Policy of ForexCT to recommend the use of stop/loss function to reduce risk of significant losses to customers.

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    Risk Warning
    Trading FX and CFDs involves a substantial degree of risk and should only be undertaken with risk capital. Please consider our PDS and FSG before trading with us. A copy can be found on our website Forex Capital Trading Pty Ltd provides general advice that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Investors do not own or have rights to underlying assets. Forex Capital Trading Pty Ltd is regulated by ASIC (AFSL 306400), ABN (69119086270). Forex Capital Trading Pty Ltd’s AFS license and Australian regulation only applies to the financial services being provided in Australia only.

    Posted: August 15, 2019 | 5:46 AM